Kenya Eyes Sh156 Billion Growth as Milk Output Set to Hit 3.4 Billion Liters by 2028

Kenya’s milk production is projected to reach 3.4 billion liters annually by 2028, potentially generating Sh156 billion in revenue, according to new projections from the Nourishing Prosperity Alliance: Forage for Animal Growth in East Africa (NPA-Forage). The anticipated 53 percent increase in output is being driven by a forage-centered initiative targeting 500,000 smallholder dairy farmers, supported by a consortium of private sector players aiming to reshape the country’s dairy value chain.
At the heart of the transformation is a shift toward nutrient-dense, climate-resilient forage, designed to address a chronic deficit in feed quality that has long suppressed milk yields. Smallholder farmers, who account for 80 percent of Kenya’s dairy producers and supply over half of the national milk output, are now being equipped with the tools, knowledge, and resources to boost productivity sustainably.
The NPA-Forage program, which began in 2020, builds a self-sustaining commercial marketplace for forage, enabling farmers to grow or purchase high-quality feed that supports improved animal nutrition. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), poor nutrition contributes to a national milk supply deficit of 4.42 billion liters annually, representing Sh169 billion in unrealized value for the sector.
Since its inception, the program has trained over 5,500 smallholder farmers on forage production, ration formulation, and climate-adapted feeding practices. Among those trained, 91 percent reported increased knowledge of forage nutrition and a stronger capacity to prepare balanced feed. For farmers who have implemented the new practices, 87 percent have reported milk yield increases, with an average jump of 64 percent — a powerful demonstration of the impact of better forage.
Brenda Rono, Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Manager for NPA-Forage in Kenya, noted that attitudes are shifting rapidly. “Farmers are changing how they feed their animals, resulting in higher milk yields. They are also learning to grow nutritious forage both for their own use and for sale, adding a new income stream.”
The project’s trajectory is equally encouraging. The dairy sector is expected to grow by 16 percent in 2025, 26 percent in 2026, and by 53 percent by 2028. These milestones are being measured through indicators such as milk produced per cow, farmer adoption rates of forage-based feeding systems, and revenue growth across the dairy and forage markets.
Ian Mutua Muthama, the Country Lead Technical Manager at NPA-Forage, emphasized that the commercial model has the potential to deliver long-term gains. “By building a reliable forage market and promoting cost-effective feeding systems, we are not only increasing production but also delivering tangible economic value to farmers and strengthening Kenya’s dairy economy.”
The broader benefits are far-reaching. Higher milk yields and better nutrition translate into stronger rural livelihoods, more jobs, and improved national food security. As Kenya moves toward this production milestone, it is clear that smart agricultural interventions — rooted in innovation and farmer empowerment — are laying the foundation for a more prosperous dairy industry and a more resilient economy.