As Kenya approaches to the August general election, Raila Odinga brigade continues to believe their coalition NASA has numbers, dubbed 10 million strong.
Raila Odinga has lost in the past three presidential elections though he keeps saying his victory was stolen. What Raila and his brigade have not realized is that their outfit draws crowds for the comical theatrics which at the end don’t translate into votes.
Instead of selling their ideas to Kenyans, Raila-led NASA brigade have all their effort in blame game while on the other side, the incumbent’s Uhuru Kenyatta’s onslaught is anchored on real issues of developments across the country.
Raila is beating the drums of war. For starters, he has continued to claim government will rig this election. And that IEBC is the government and the government is IEBC. But he has run short of memory that his led brigade was responsible for sending Issack Hassan led IEBC home falling endless demonstration against the independent institution.
Raila has insisted on having a parallel tallying system. And the question asked on this is the following: Will Raila Amolo Odinga use this system to declare Uhuru Kenyatta the winner? The answer is zero! Raila has put up this system to declare himself the winner, whether he wins or not and this is a call to ignite what was witnessed in 2007/2008 after election.
The point here is simple: Raila is not interested in the election. He has the results already “cooked” in his tallying centre. And he can announce them tomorrow if he wants to. To him, he won the election the day he was declared the National Super Alliance (NASA) candidate.
Raila led brigade is in slumber. Raila already told us how many votes he will garner. He calls this the “10 Million Strong Campaign”. His parallel tallying centre has therefore been programmed to ‘cook’ a figure close to 10 million votes. And since he has conditioned our minds to believe his political ‘lies’.
What the country has not done, though, is to interrogate Raila’s “Tyranny of Lies”. Let look into the “10 Million Strong” Lie. The idea is a fallacy is deemed to purely ‘normalise’ the rigging lie, the lie about the tallying centre and the lie about the “People’s President”.
To prove the 10 Million Strong is a fallacy and a “Tyranny of Lies” let’s look at elections from 1992 to 2013. Then we have the following submissions to make.
- Kenyans vote along ethnic lines. There is no point cheating ourselves. In the 2013 election, 95 per cent of the Luo Nation voted for Raila; and 91 per cent of Gema voted for Uhuru. This is a statistical fact.
- It is difficult to explain the Luhya Nation using science. Their voting patterns are not predictable. As such, they are not ‘bankable’ until you lock them in the ‘bank’. Take 2002 for instance, because the Luo Nation did not have a stake in the Kibaki coalition, their turnout dropped to a record low of 53 per cent.
However, the turnout drop for the Luhya Nation was worse. Although they had Kijana Wamalwa as Mzee Kibaki’s running mate, they did not care. Their turnout dropped from 68.2 per cent to 39 per cent in the 2002 election.
If they did this at a time when their candidate was running mate, how will they behave if their stake in NASA is zero? Considering Uhuru-led Jubilee onslaught in Western, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma have warmed up not doubt Jubilee will have a bumper harvest in this region which Raila has banked on largely.
- Now let’s must return to the “10 Million” lie of NASA. If you take the past five elections as case studies, we must conclude that the average voter turnout will be 69 per cent or more. The IEBC register shows that there are 5.58 million Gema votes; and 2.32 million Kalenjin votes. This gives Jubilee a total of 7.9 million votes, if ethnic voting is a fact.
- The three communities of NASA include 2.22 million Luo voters, 2.13 million Kamba voters and 2.56 million Luhya voters. This adds up to 6.9 million votes.
In this scenario, Jubilee is out in this campaign with 7.9 million votes in its bag while NASA’s bag has 6.9 million votes. And you can counter-check this with the IEBC register and the National Census for credibility of these figures.
And how do they get there with voter apathy in Ukambani and Luhya perceived strongholds? Grounds have shifted in these regions. Voters from these regions nearly have will vote for Jubilee. Kalonzo is Raila’s running mate has been in government for three decades. As a senior government official and a VP in Kibaki’s administration, he has nothing to show in terms of development in Ukambani not even to say in any part of the country. Though he built a prison in Ukambani!
Musalia and Wetangula as Luhya nation senior leaders are embarrassment and same as Kalonzo have nothing substantial to show. Musalia Mudavadi even his Co-principal Raila Odinga in the past has categorically said he is the architect of the Goldenburg scandal when he was Finance Minister. And Wetangula, in Embassy scandal, he sold the Kenyan Embassy in Tokyo, Japan. Raila promising the biblical ‘Canaan’ is even absurd if Kibera and backwardness in Nyanza is anything to go by.
And this is why the 72 year of Raila is a master of ‘Tyranny of Lies’ will be defeated in August polls by energetic, development oriented Uhuru Kenyatta with over 10 million votes. Numbers never lie, Jubilee has numbers and headed for a resounding victory, 54.6%.