Kenya’s Incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta will win the August general election even in the worst scenario. Despite the opposition led by three times election loser, Raila Amolo Odinga waging propaganda war on Kenyatta’s government, analysts projects the incumbent will win in the first round. Senior analysts at Political Affairs TM (PA) have analyzed several scenarios and found a bias; opposition stands no chance in the August 2017polls.
Scenario 1: President Kenyatta loses 5% popularity across the country’s 47 counties
Using the 2013 presidential election results to predict a possible repeat, the analysts found out that the incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta will win with a huge margin. Also assuming the opposition NASA over the past 5 years has inherited 5% of the incumbent’s votes across all counties, Kenyatta will still win with approximately 148,813. The148,813 votes translates to a first round win with over 54.6% (which is above the constitution threshold of 50+1 required to win the election and avoid a runoff).
In the worst scenario for the incumbent, assuming that the relative to the 2013 election outcome that Kenyatta’s performance including his strongholds will in 2017 worsen by 5%. We give this 5% to Raila Amolo Odinga. Now using the latest IEBC figures across all the counties, what each got in 2013 polls and voter turnout, we further assume the 2013 pattern will be the same in 2017. In this case assuming that the incumbent loss in each of the 47 counties will become Odinga’s gain, it turned out that Kenyatta would garner 8,018,906 (50.4%) votes against perennial loser Raila Odinga’s 7,890,093 (49.59%).
Scenario 2: Repeat of 2013 Voting Pattern in all 47 Counties
Using 2013 presidential election results to predict a possible repeat, we found that the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta would register a resounding victory with approximately 1,072, 224 votes beating Odinga hands down. In this scenario, the analysis teams from PA reviews scenario-1 but assume the incumbent has not drained away any support rather has retained his support.
Using the 2013 voting pattern, then President Kenyatta would garner 8,489,226 votes against Odinga’s 7,417,002 votes. We have used the average voter turnout in 2013 and assumed it will be repeated in 2017, and made a projection. In this case President Kenyatta will win the election with 53. 37% against Odinga’s 46.62%.
This would be resounding win for Kenyatta and defeat for Odinga who hardly concedes defeat rather cries foul citing rigging and imagined malpractices.
Scenario 3: Incumbent President Kenyatta Gains 5% Popularity in all 47 Counties
The incumbent and energetic President Kenyatta would register a big win by approximately 2,662,703 votes and subsequently humiliating and humbling 72 years-old Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
By using both Scenario 1 and 2, PA analysts make a plausible case whereby the incumbent President Kenyatta has gained popularity across the country. In Scenario-1, we assumed the president lost 5% support/votes across the country (we averaged this percentage per all 47 counties).
In scenario 3, we assume the president’s popularity has gained 5% in each county supported by data from pollsters to assume that more women and the elderly in opposition strongholds are more likely to vote for the Incumbent President Kenyatta thus our assumption that the president is 5% more popular than in 2013.
Scenario 2 is based on the assumption that the 2013 voting pattern is more likely to be repeated in 2017, as such, President Kenyatta’s 5% growth in popularity will reflect automatically. President Kenyatta will win with 54.6% beating Odinga badly and embarrassing the old politician. The incumbent Kenyatta would garner 9,284,465 votes against Raila Odinga’s 6,621,762 votes, a difference of over 2.6 million votes.
Scenario 4: Referencing Four Pollsters Projections and the Undecided Voters Likely Preferences
We analyze 3 latest polls by Infotrak Harris, Ipsos Synovate, and Radio Africa.
- In the past but recent Infrotrak Harris polls, the pollster found out that 8% of Kenyans are undecided and that 48% would vote for incumbent Kenyatta. In this scenario we use the worst case scenario whereby we give the incumbent, President Kenyatta only 40% of the undecided voters. This would translate to 52% 1st round win against Raila Odinga’s 49%. This outcome relates with scenario-1’s projection though the margin is much higher but similar scenario-2 whereby the President gets 53% of the vote.
- Also African Electoral Observation Group poll projected the incumbent, President Kenyatta would garner 51.7% 1st round win.
- Pollster, Radio Africa projected the incumbent would win the election with 49.5% against his closet rival, Raila Odinga with 40.5%. The pollster indicated that 10% are undecided. If Uhuru takes just 50% of the undecided, he’d win 1st round with 54%.
- Another pollster, Ipsos Synovate poll shows Uhuru Kenyatta would win with 49% against Odinga’s 40% with 9% of voters undecided. If the undecided voters were shares based on the same percentage, Uhuru Kenyatta would take away 6% of the undecided voters translating to 55% 1st round win.
Summarily, the incumbent President Kenyatta wins in all 4 scenarios. Though Odinga led NASA is putting a brave face, they stand no chance. President Uhuru Kenyatta is poised for a convincing reelection.
Kenyatta’s reelection is likely to end the Odinga dynasty and fanatical influence it had in Nyanza Province of Kenya for years. Odinga’s loss is likely to shift sociopolitics and likely to see the last of ethnic tensions during future elections.
A Kenyatta reelection will be the rebirth of Kenya, socially, economically, and politically.